Title: Investigating the Link Between Gun Possession and Gun Assault

Publication Date: November 2009

What does it say?

This is a case-control study that looks at the relationship between being shot in an assault and possession of a gun at the time.

The most striking finding from the study is that individuals in possession of a gun were 4.5 times more likely to be shot in an assault than those not in possession.  Among gun assaults where the victim had at least some chance to resist, the adjusted odds ratio increased to 5.5.

The study concludes that: “On average, guns did not protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault.”

The researchers wrote that possessors of guns may be in more, not less, danger for a number of reasons.  Offenders may use surprise to overpower their victims, making it difficult to use a gun for self-defense.  If a victim is able to draw a gun, it signals to the offender that he must use maximum force to overpower the victim.  In addition, the increased possibility of guns being carried in the community may lead to an escalation in the lethality of weapons brought to an argument.

This is a relatively strong research design that looks at the specific risk factor of possessing a gun at the time of assault and is an improvement on previous studies. In addition, methods were used to simulate high levels of misclassification bias (i.e. results were analyzed several ways to allow for possibility of undetected gun possession) and still did not find any overall evidence for gun possession providing protection against assault.

How can I use it?

Use the results of this study to challenge the NRA’s assertion that guns make us safer.  The research results highlight the risks of gun ownership and how having more guns correlates with more gun violence.

This research severely undermines the argument by gun pushers that carrying a gun automatically makes a person safer. The NRA is pushing to make it easier to carry concealed loaded guns in public under the premise that gun possession is protective against being shot in an assault.

The statistic generated by this study is particularly relevant to the fight at the federal level to force states with stronger carry concealed weapons permit systems to allow people to carry firearms who come from states with weak systems (known as the Thune Amendment, which recently failed but could be pushed again).

The Supreme Court affirmed in the Heller decision on the Second Amendment that prohibitions on carrying in public are presumptively constitutional. This study provides evidence that restrictions on carrying in public may also be a good public safety strategy.

Citation

Branas et al, “Investigating the Link Between Gun Possession and Gun Assault,” American Journal of Public Health 99(11)(2009), published online ahead of print, Sep 17, 2009

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