Title: Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results

Publication Date: August 2010

What does it say?

This article critiques a 2008 working paper (the “Duggan paper”) purporting to show that, based on gun shows in California and Texas, tighter regulation of gun shows does not reduce gun deaths in the weeks after a gun show and in the local area.  The gun lobby is promoting the working paper as part of its efforts to block requiring background checks at gun shows.

At the time the working paper was released in 2008, a group of prominent gun violence prevention researchers critiqued it, and their critique was featured on the NY Times Economix blog.   This article is an expanded, published critique of the Duggan paper.

Based on its multiple flaws, the authors conclude “This study should be not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy.”

One example of a flaw: the paper’s design essentially prevented any meaningful findings.  The Duggan paper looked at gun deaths narrowly: within a month of a gun show and in the surrounding local area.  Yet, this report finds, just 1.9 percent of guns involved in crimes in Texas and California were recovered within 28 days and 25 miles of their entry into the market.  This means: “…it is reasonable to infer that [Duggan et al’s] analysis misses the great majority - as much as 99 percent - of the expected effect of gun shows on homicide.”

How can I use it?

This study should be used aggressively to debunk the Duggan paper every time the gun lobby, elected officials, or the media cite it.  Send the study to elected officials who are leaders in the gun violence prevention movement so they will have the facts at their fingertips.

Citation

Wintemute, Garen, David Hemenway, Daniel Webster, Glenn Pierce, and Anthony Braga, “Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results,” American Journal of Public Health, published online, August 19, 2010

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