The Myth of the NRA's Influence Over Election Outcomes

Nov 9, 2012

Washington, D.C. - The NRA sounds powerful - $18 million total spent on this election through November 4.  Are they as powerful as elected officials believe they are? Does their support, on the whole, give their candidates a decisive boost towards victory?

American Prospect’s Paul Waldman has made the case that the NRA’s dominance in elections is a myth.  Specifically, his research has found that an NRA independent expenditure (IE) campaign does not improve a candidate’s chance of winning.

He found the same with endorsements: “….[I]n the last four federal elections, in which the NRA made a total of 1038 endorsements in House races, the group could claim credit for a grand total of 4 wins.”

Jeremy Mayer, Associate Professor in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, wrote an op-ed for the Christian Science Monitor documenting that the NRA failed to protect pro-gun rights House Democrats in the 2010 elections. In that cycle, NRA-endorsed candidates comprised half of all defeated Democrats.

The Brady Campaign’s Guns & The 2008 Elections:  Common Sense Gun Laws Won, The NRA Lost, & What it Means, documented the NRA’s ineffective spending in that cycle:

• The NRA spent 31 times more money against Obama than it spent in its negative efforts in 2000 against Al Gore, yet Obama won handily.  
• The NRA spent more than 90 percent of its independent expenditures in Senate races on losing candidates (for elections called as of election morning 2008).

This election cycle presents another opportunity to evaluate the reality vs. the myth of the NRA’s influence.  In independent expenditures through November 4, the NRA spent $11.8 million to defeat President Obama and $3.4 million across six key Senate races to defeat Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Senator Bill Nelson in Florida, Tim Kaine in Virginia, Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and Chris Murphy in Connecticut.  In fact, the NRA, through November 4, spent 88% of its federal independent expenditures in these 7 races.

The result? The NRA’s candidates lost in the presidential race and 6 key Senate races.

If the NRA’s money does not influence election outcomes, then the question becomes why do candidates fear them and continue to evade their responsibility to protect the American people from the preventable tragedy of gun violence? Numerous polls show that the overwhelming majority of Americans, including gun owners, understand that preventing gun violence does not conflict with a Second Amendment right to own guns.  How long will we allow this myth to hold our nation hostage to shooting massacres and the murder of 32 people each day with guns?

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The Brady Campaign is the nation's largest citizens' lobby to prevent gun violence. We represent the voice of the overwhelming majority of Americans who are tired of living with the constant tragedy of gun violence and are in favor of strong laws and policies that will save lives. We are the light that exposes politicians who are putting the American people at risk, empowering the American people to hold them accountable for decisions and actions that undermine public safety.

We are driven by the focused vision of a nation where all Americans are safe at home, at work, at school, and in our communities.

Dan Gross is the President of the Brady Campaign and the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence. A photo and more information about Dan Gross is available here.

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